Mochamed Machaev vs Robert Watley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-2-0Record16-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
-Reach75"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gym 23· avg 1685 EloTeamConquest BJJ
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1729
If they lose-16→ 1697
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mochamed MachaevRobert Watley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mochamed Machaev63%
Robert Watley 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mochamed Machaev a 63% favorite over Robert Watley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1713 vs 1710), separated by just 3 points.
Mochamed Machaev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mochamed Machaev finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Robert Watley 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.