Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-7-0Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'4"
78"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Modestas Bukauskas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1734
If they lose-14→ 1710
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-10→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Modestas BukauskasPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Modestas Bukauskas53%
Paul Craig 47%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 53% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Modestas Bukauskas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1724 to 1663, a 61-point edge.
Modestas Bukauskas enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Modestas Bukauskas finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Modestas Bukauskas and Paul Craig share 1 common opponent: Nikita Krylov.
Modestas Bukauskas carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.