Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'4"
78"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Gintas CombatTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Modestas Bukauskas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1717
If they lose-14→ 1693
If they win+14→ 1676
If they lose-10→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Modestas BukauskasPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Modestas Bukauskas73%
Paul Craig 27%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 73% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Modestas Bukauskas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1662, a 45-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Modestas Bukauskas finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Modestas Bukauskas and Paul Craig share 1 common opponent: Nikita Krylov.
Modestas Bukauskas carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.