Combat Edge Intelligence

Modestas Bukauskas vs Raffael Cerqueira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Gintas CombatTeamCTJ Judo & Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Modestas Bukauskas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Raffael Cerqueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Modestas BukauskasNow 1707
If they win+9→ 1716
If they lose-15→ 1692
Raffael CerqueiraNow 1628
If they win+20→ 1648
If they lose-12→ 1616

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.24
Sig. strikes / min
1.61
43%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.88
51%
Strike defense
37%
0.26
Takedown avg.
0
67%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
79%
Takedown defense
40%
0.13
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Modestas BukauskasRaffael Cerqueira
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (55%)
KO/TKO
8 (73%)
3 (15%)
Submission
2 (18%)
6 (30%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Modestas Bukauskas73%
Raffael Cerqueira 27%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 73% favorite over Raffael Cerqueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Modestas Bukauskas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1628, a 79-point edge.

Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Modestas Bukauskas finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.

Modestas Bukauskas carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.