Modestas Bukauskas vs Zac Pauga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record7-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
78"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Gintas CombatTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Modestas Bukauskas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Zac Pauga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1691
If they win+22→ 1593
If they lose-10→ 1561
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Modestas BukauskasZac Pauga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Modestas Bukauskas87%
Zac Pauga 13%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 87% favorite over Zac Pauga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Modestas Bukauskas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1571, a 136-point edge.
Modestas Bukauskas finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Zac Pauga 29%.
Modestas Bukauskas carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.