Combat Edge Intelligence

Mohammed Usman vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
79"Reach74"
237 lbsWeight257 lbs
War Room Kickboxing & MMATeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mohammed UsmanNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
39%
Strike accuracy
60%
4.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
51%
Strike defense
55%
0.56
Takedown avg.
3.01
14%
Takedown accuracy
43%
67%
Takedown defense
88%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Mohammed UsmanThomas Petersen
16502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
2 (18%)
Submission
1 (9%)
5 (45%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen63%
Mohammed Usman 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 63% favorite over Mohammed Usman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Mohammed Usman finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Mohammed Usman carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.