Combat Edge Intelligence

Mohammed Usman vs Tsuyoshi Kosaka

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record28-21-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
79"ReachTBD
237 lbsWeight214 lbs
War Room Kickboxing & MMATeamAlliance-Square

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mohammed UsmanNow 1615
If they win+16→ 1631
If they lose-16→ 1599
Tsuyoshi KosakaNow 1617
If they win+12→ 1629
If they lose-12→ 1605

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
0.71
39%
Strike accuracy
55%
4.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
17.82
51%
Strike defense
54%
0.56
Takedown avg.
1.78
14%
Takedown accuracy
100%
67%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mohammed UsmanTsuyoshi Kosaka
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
9 (38%)
2 (18%)
Submission
6 (25%)
5 (45%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Mohammed Usman56%
Tsuyoshi Kosaka 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mohammed Usman a 56% favorite over Tsuyoshi Kosaka in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tsuyoshi Kosaka's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1617), separated by just 2 points.

Mohammed Usman finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Tsuyoshi Kosaka 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.