Mohammed Usman vs Zac Pauga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record7-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
79"Reach76"
237 lbsWeight205 lbs
War Room Kickboxing & MMATeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Mohammed Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Zac Pauga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1629
If they lose-18→ 1597
If they win+18→ 1589
If they lose-14→ 1557
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mohammed UsmanZac Pauga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mohammed Usman63%
Zac Pauga 37%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Mohammed Usman a 63% favorite over Zac Pauga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Mohammed Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1615 to 1571, a 44-point edge.
Mohammed Usman finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Zac Pauga 29%.
Mohammed Usman carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.