Combat Edge Intelligence

Motonobu Tezuka vs Vaughan Lee

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-15-6Record14-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Secret Base DominateTeamUTC Birmingham

What's at stake

Motonobu Tezuka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Vaughan Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Motonobu TezukaNow 1602
If they win+9→ 1611
If they lose-15→ 1587
Vaughan LeeNow 1507
If they win+15→ 1522
If they lose-9→ 1498

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.87
Sig. strikes / min
3.47
24%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
51%
Strike defense
70%
1.50
Takedown avg.
0.81
11%
Takedown accuracy
33%
0%
Takedown defense
72%
0.50
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Motonobu TezukaVaughan Lee
1500155016001650201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (23%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
7 (23%)
Submission
7 (50%)
16 (53%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Motonobu Tezuka63%
Vaughan Lee 37%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Motonobu Tezuka a 63% favorite over Vaughan Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Motonobu Tezuka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1602 to 1507, a 95-point edge.

Motonobu Tezuka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Vaughan Lee enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Motonobu Tezuka finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Vaughan Lee 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.