Combat Edge Intelligence

Mounir Lazzez vs Warlley Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
76"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
Team Nogueira DubaiTeamRizzo RVT

What's at stake

Mounir Lazzez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mounir LazzezNow 1657
If they win+15→ 1672
If they lose-17→ 1640
Warlley AlvesNow 1625
If they win+17→ 1642
If they lose-15→ 1610

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.49
Sig. strikes / min
3.04
55%
Strike accuracy
48%
5.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.95
53%
Strike defense
51%
1.80
Takedown avg.
1.22
57%
Takedown accuracy
50%
71%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Mounir LazzezWarlley Alves
165017002021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (73%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (43%)
3 (27%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Mounir Lazzez68%
Warlley Alves 32%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Mounir Lazzez a 68% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Mounir Lazzez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1625, a 32-point edge.

Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Mounir Lazzez finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.

Mounir Lazzez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.