Combat Edge Intelligence

Muin Gafurov vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record10-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"Reach68"
136 lbsWeight136 lbs
Taj-FighterTeamFreelance

What's at stake

Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Muin Gafurov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Muin GafurovNow 1660
If they win+18→ 1678
If they lose-14→ 1646
Rinya NakamuraNow 1710
If they win+14→ 1724
If they lose-18→ 1692

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.89
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
46%
Strike accuracy
55%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.38
53%
Strike defense
67%
1.47
Takedown avg.
3.72
26%
Takedown accuracy
90%
70%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
1.65

Trajectory

Muin GafurovRinya Nakamura
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
7 (35%)
Submission
1 (10%)
3 (15%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rinya Nakamura60%
Muin Gafurov 40%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 60% favorite over Muin Gafurov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1660, a 50-point edge.

Muin Gafurov finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.