Muin Gafurov vs Rinya Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
68"Reach68"
136 lbsWeight136 lbs
Taj-FighterTeamFreelance· 1552 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Muin Gafurov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1685
If they lose-15→ 1653
If they win+15→ 1704
If they lose-17→ 1672
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Muin GafurovRinya Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Muin Gafurov58%
Rinya Nakamura 42%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Muin Gafurov a 58% favorite over Rinya Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rinya Nakamura's way (47%).
Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1668, a 21-point edge.
Muin Gafurov finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.