Combat Edge Intelligence

Muin Gafurov vs Said Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record18-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
68"Reach70"
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
Taj-FighterTeamFight Club Akhmat

What's at stake

Said Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Muin Gafurov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Muin GafurovNow 1660
If they win+19→ 1679
If they lose-13→ 1647
Said NurmagomedovNow 1723
If they win+13→ 1736
If they lose-19→ 1704

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.89
Sig. strikes / min
3.08
46%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
53%
Strike defense
56%
1.47
Takedown avg.
0.86
26%
Takedown accuracy
15%
70%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Muin GafurovSaid Nurmagomedov
1650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (22%)
7 (35%)
Submission
6 (33%)
3 (15%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Said Nurmagomedov62%
Muin Gafurov 38%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Said Nurmagomedov a 62% favorite over Muin Gafurov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Said Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1660, a 63-point edge.

Said Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Muin Gafurov finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Said Nurmagomedov 56%.

Said Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.