Muslim Magomedov vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-0-0Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
72"Reach74,0"
206 lbsWeight232 lbs
What's at stake
Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Muslim Magomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1812
If they lose-15→ 1780
If they win+11→ 1837
If they lose-13→ 1813
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1591 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Muslim MagomedovRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Muslim Magomedov56%
Ryan Bader 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Muslim Magomedov a 56% favorite over Ryan Bader in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan Bader's way (46%).
Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1826 to 1795, a 31-point edge.
Muslim Magomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Muslim Magomedov finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Ryan Bader carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.