Combat Edge Intelligence

Muslim Salikhov vs Rory MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-6-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
70″Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fighting EagleTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Muslim SalikhovNow 1745
If they win+12→ 1757
If they lose-12→ 1733
Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.37
Sig. strikes / min
3.75
50%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
62%
Strike defense
62%
1.07
Takedown avg.
1.77
32%
Takedown accuracy
48%
72%
Takedown defense
89%
0
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Muslim SalikhovRory MacDonald
1700175018002019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (68%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
2 (9%)
Submission
9 (39%)
5 (23%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Muslim Salikhov57%
Rory MacDonald 43%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Muslim Salikhov a 57% favorite over Rory MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1745 vs 1741), separated by just 4 points.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Muslim Salikhov finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.

Rory MacDonald carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.