Nah-Shon Burrell vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-12-0Record17-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renzo Gracie Philly· 1735 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Stephen Thompson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nah-Shon Burrell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1613
If they lose-9→ 1589
If they win+11→ 1713
If they lose-21→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1583 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nah-Shon BurrellStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephen Thompson73%
Nah-Shon Burrell 27%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Thompson a 73% favorite over Nah-Shon Burrell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Stephen Thompson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1702 to 1598, a 104-point edge.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nah-Shon Burrell finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.