Combat Edge Intelligence

Naoki Inoue vs Rafael Estevam

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-5-0Record14-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"Reach69"
134 lbsWeight128 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Naoki InoueNow 1723
If they win+12→ 1735
If they lose-12→ 1711
Rafael EstevamNow 1725
If they win+16→ 1741
If they lose-16→ 1709

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
2.10
35%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.37
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
61%
Strike defense
47%
0
Takedown avg.
6.01
0%
Takedown accuracy
39%
60%
Takedown defense
67%
2.50
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Naoki InoueRafael Estevam
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (10%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
9 (43%)
Submission
3 (21%)
10 (48%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Naoki Inoue and Rafael Estevam within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1725), separated by just 2 points.

Naoki Inoue finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.

Naoki Inoue carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.