Naoki Matsushita vs Raphael Mebenga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
12-16-11Record1-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"HeightTBD
TBDReachTBD
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
MB3zTeam
What's at stake
Raphael Mebenga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Naoki Matsushita carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1446
If they lose-11→ 1422
If they win+23→ 1472
If they lose-25→ 1424
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Naoki MatsushitaRaphael Mebenga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raphael Mebenga54%
Naoki Matsushita 46%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Raphael Mebenga a 54% favorite over Naoki Matsushita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Raphael Mebenga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1449 to 1433, a 16-point edge.
Raphael Mebenga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Naoki Matsushita finishes 42% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.