Naoki Matsushita vs Taisei Mizusugi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-16-11Record6-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
154 lbsWeight156 lbs
MB3zTeamblooM
What's at stake
Taisei Mizusugi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Naoki Matsushita carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1445
If they lose-11→ 1421
If they win+14→ 1484
If they lose-18→ 1452
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Naoki MatsushitaTaisei Mizusugi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Taisei Mizusugi83%
Naoki Matsushita 17%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Taisei Mizusugi a 83% favorite over Naoki Matsushita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Taisei Mizusugi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1470 to 1432, a 38-point edge.
Naoki Matsushita finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Taisei Mizusugi 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.