Combat Edge Intelligence

Naoyuki Kotani vs Thiago Tavares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

37-19-7Record24-11-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReach68,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Rodeo StyleTeamTeam Tavares

What's at stake

Thiago Tavares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Naoyuki Kotani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Naoyuki KotaniNow 1594
If they win+14→ 1608
If they lose-10→ 1584
Thiago TavaresNow 1645
If they win+10→ 1655
If they lose-14→ 1631

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.02
Sig. strikes / min
2
31%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.89
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.31
50%
Strike defense
63%
0.83
Takedown avg.
3.83
17%
Takedown accuracy
43%
47%
Takedown defense
63%
0.83
Submission avg.
1.46

Trajectory

Naoyuki KotaniThiago Tavares
1600165020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

6 (16%)
KO/TKO
4 (17%)
27 (73%)
Submission
15 (63%)
4 (11%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Tavares75%
Naoyuki Kotani 25%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Tavares a 75% favorite over Naoyuki Kotani in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Thiago Tavares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1594, a 51-point edge.

Naoyuki Kotani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Naoyuki Kotani finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Tavares 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.