Natan Schulte vs Shinya Aoki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-6-1Record49-13-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
69"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
American Top TeamTeamParaestra Tokyo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1784
If they lose-12→ 1760
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Natan SchulteShinya Aoki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Natan Schulte63%
Shinya Aoki 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Natan Schulte a 63% favorite over Shinya Aoki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1772 vs 1766), separated by just 6 points.
Shinya Aoki enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Natan Schulte finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Shinya Aoki 77%.
Shinya Aoki carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.