Nate Diaz vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-14-0Record32-18-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
76"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1686
If they lose-11→ 1662
If they win+11→ 1709
If they lose-13→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nate DiazRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael dos Anjos53%
Nate Diaz 47%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 53% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1673, a 25-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Nate Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Nate Diaz and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Leon Edwards.
Nate Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.