Nate Diaz vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-14-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
76"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
If they win+11→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nate DiazRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz60%
Rafael dos Anjos 40%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 60% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael dos Anjos's way (44%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1674, a 39-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nate Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Nate Diaz and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Leon Edwards.
Nate Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.