Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Diaz vs Reginaldo Junior

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-14-0Record11-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
76"Reach74.5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamFighting Nerds

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Reginaldo JuniorNow 1673
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1484 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.57
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
45%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
53%
Strike defense
TBD
1.05
Takedown avg.
TBD
31%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
42%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.29
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Nate DiazReginaldo Junior
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
12 (57%)
Submission
4 (40%)
4 (19%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Diaz69%
Reginaldo Junior 31%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 69% favorite over Reginaldo Junior in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1673), separated by just 1 points.

Reginaldo Junior enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Nate Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Reginaldo Junior 80%.

Nate Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.