Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-14-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Rory MacDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+14→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1664
Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+10→ 1751
If they lose-14→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.75
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
53%
Strike defense
62%
1.05
Takedown avg.
1.77
31%
Takedown accuracy
48%
42%
Takedown defense
89%
1.29
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Nate DiazRory MacDonald
17001750180020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
12 (57%)
Submission
9 (39%)
4 (19%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rory MacDonald63%
Nate Diaz 37%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 63% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Rory MacDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1674, a 67-point edge.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nate Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.