Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-14-0Record17-6-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight177 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamMiletich Martial Arts

What's at stake

Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rory Markham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661
Rory MarkhamNow 1636
If they win+18→ 1654
If they lose-14→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.57
Sig. strikes / min
1.98
45%
Strike accuracy
22%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
10.27
53%
Strike defense
45%
1.05
Takedown avg.
0
31%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
42%
Takedown defense
0%
1.29
Submission avg.
0

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
12 (71%)
12 (57%)
Submission
5 (29%)
4 (19%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Diaz70%
Rory Markham 30%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 70% favorite over Rory Markham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1636, a 38-point edge.

Nate Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rory Markham 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.