Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-14-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1684
If they lose-13→ 1660
If they win+13→ 1671
If they lose-11→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nate DiazTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz55%
Tony Ferguson 45%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 55% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1658, a 15-point edge.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Nate Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.