Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Diaz vs Tony Ferguson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-14-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamKnuckleheadz MMA

What's at stake

Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661
Tony FergusonNow 1659
If they win+13→ 1672
If they lose-11→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.57
Sig. strikes / min
4.91
45%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.37
53%
Strike defense
55%
1.05
Takedown avg.
0.39
31%
Takedown accuracy
35%
42%
Takedown defense
66%
1.29
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Nate DiazTony Ferguson
1650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
12 (48%)
12 (57%)
Submission
8 (32%)
4 (19%)
Decision
5 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Diaz63%
Tony Ferguson 37%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 63% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1659, a 15-point edge.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.

Nate Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.