Nate Maness vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-3-0Record20-2-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'8"
72"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Salvation Mixed Martial ArtsTeamEagles MMA· 1815 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Nate Maness carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1757
If they lose-13→ 1725
If they win+13→ 1815
If they lose-19→ 1783
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nate ManessUmar Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Umar Nurmagomedov76%
Nate Maness 24%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 76% favorite over Nate Maness in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1738, a 64-point edge.
Nate Maness enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Nate Maness finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.
Nate Maness carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.