Nate Maness vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-3-0Record20-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'8"
72"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Salvation Mixed Martial ArtsTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Nate Maness carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1724
If they win+12→ 1834
If they lose-20→ 1802
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nate ManessUmar Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Umar Nurmagomedov83%
Nate Maness 17%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 83% favorite over Nate Maness in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1736, a 86-point edge.
Nate Maness enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Nate Maness finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.
Nate Maness carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.