Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Marquardt vs Rousimar Palhares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

36-20-2Record19-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
42,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
High Altitude Martial ArtsTeamTeam Nogueira

What's at stake

Nate Marquardt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Rousimar Palhares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+8→ 1659
If they lose-16→ 1635
Rousimar PalharesNow 1544
If they win+16→ 1560
If they lose-8→ 1536

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.71
Sig. strikes / min
1.75
49%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.04
56%
Strike defense
60%
1.87
Takedown avg.
3.93
51%
Takedown accuracy
46%
71%
Takedown defense
0%
0.85
Submission avg.
4.11

Trajectory

Nate MarquardtRousimar Palhares
155016001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

13 (36%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
15 (42%)
Submission
16 (84%)
8 (22%)
Decision
3 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Marquardt66%
Rousimar Palhares 34%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Marquardt a 66% favorite over Rousimar Palhares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Nate Marquardt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1544, a 107-point edge.

Rousimar Palhares enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Nate Marquardt finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rousimar Palhares 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.