Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Marquardt vs Sam Alvey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Sam Alvey
us

Sam Alvey

“Smile'n”

34-18-1MiddleweightB2FS

1640Solid

Tale of the tape

36-20-2Record34-18-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
42,0"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
High Altitude Martial ArtsTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+12→ 1663
If they lose-12→ 1639
Sam AlveyNow 1640
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.71
Sig. strikes / min
3.28
49%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.63
56%
Strike defense
53%
1.87
Takedown avg.
0.06
51%
Takedown accuracy
14%
71%
Takedown defense
82%
0.85
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Nate MarquardtSam Alvey
16501700202120222023

Win method breakdown

13 (36%)
KO/TKO
20 (59%)
15 (42%)
Submission
3 (9%)
8 (22%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Alvey60%
Nate Marquardt 40%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Alvey a 60% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nate Marquardt's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1640), separated by just 11 points.

Nate Marquardt finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.