Nate Marquardt vs Thales Leites
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-20-2Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
42,0"Reach78,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
High Altitude Martial ArtsTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1666
If they lose-9→ 1642
If they win+9→ 1754
If they lose-15→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nate MarquardtThales Leites
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thales Leites72%
Nate Marquardt 28%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 72% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1651, a 94-point edge.
Nate Marquardt finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.
Nate Marquardt and Thales Leites share 1 common opponent: Sam Alvey.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.