Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Marquardt vs Thiago Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

36-20-2Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
42,0"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
High Altitude Martial ArtsTeamTeam Marreta

What's at stake

Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+13→ 1664
If they lose-11→ 1640
Thiago SantosNow 1694
If they win+11→ 1705
If they lose-13→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.71
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
49%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
56%
Strike defense
54%
1.87
Takedown avg.
0.88
51%
Takedown accuracy
33%
71%
Takedown defense
66%
0.85
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Nate MarquardtThiago Santos
165017001750202220232024

Win method breakdown

13 (36%)
KO/TKO
15 (68%)
15 (42%)
Submission
1 (5%)
8 (22%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thiago Santos71%
Nate Marquardt 29%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 71% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1651, a 43-point edge.

Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Nate Marquardt finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.