Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Marquardt vs Vitor Belfort

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

36-20-2Record26-14-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
42,0"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
High Altitude Martial ArtsTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Vitor Belfort is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+14→ 1665
If they lose-10→ 1641
Vitor BelfortNow 1719
If they win+10→ 1729
If they lose-14→ 1705

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1754 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.71
Sig. strikes / min
1.59
49%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
56%
Strike defense
51%
1.87
Takedown avg.
1.02
51%
Takedown accuracy
60%
71%
Takedown defense
54%
0.85
Submission avg.
0.61

Trajectory

Nate MarquardtVitor Belfort
165017001750201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

13 (36%)
KO/TKO
18 (69%)
15 (42%)
Submission
3 (12%)
8 (22%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Vitor Belfort73%
Nate Marquardt 27%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Vitor Belfort a 73% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Vitor Belfort holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1651, a 68-point edge.

Nate Marquardt finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Vitor Belfort 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.