Combat Edge Intelligence

Nate Marquardt vs Wilson Gouveia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

36-20-2Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
42,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight219 lbs
High Altitude Martial ArtsTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Nate Marquardt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Wilson Gouveia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+10→ 1661
If they lose-14→ 1637
Wilson GouveiaNow 1586
If they win+19→ 1605
If they lose-13→ 1573

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.71
Sig. strikes / min
3.02
49%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.06
56%
Strike defense
57%
1.87
Takedown avg.
0.90
51%
Takedown accuracy
67%
71%
Takedown defense
58%
0.85
Submission avg.
2.25

Trajectory

Nate MarquardtWilson Gouveia
155016001650201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

13 (36%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
15 (42%)
Submission
6 (43%)
8 (22%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Marquardt53%
Wilson Gouveia 47%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Marquardt a 53% favorite over Wilson Gouveia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Nate Marquardt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1586, a 65-point edge.

Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Nate Marquardt finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.