Nate Schroeder vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-10-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
230 lbsWeight246 lbs
TeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1510
If they lose-16→ 1478
If they win+12→ 1503
If they lose-12→ 1479
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nate SchroederRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai83%
Nate Schroeder 17%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 83% favorite over Nate Schroeder in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nate Schroeder's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1494 vs 1491), separated by just 3 points.
Nate Schroeder enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nate Schroeder finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.