Nathan Jones vs Nonato Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-13-0Record19-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'7"
73"Reach-
170 lbsWeight161 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1542
If they lose-12→ 1518
If they win+12→ 1544
If they lose-12→ 1520
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nathan JonesNonato Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Jones67%
Nonato Junior 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Jones a 67% favorite over Nonato Junior in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nonato Junior's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1530 vs 1532), separated by just 2 points.
Nonato Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nathan Jones finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Nonato Junior 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.