Nathan Trepagnier vs Rafael Rios
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-6-0Record4-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
67" ReachTBD
160 lbsWeight149 lbs
Academy of Martial ArtsTeamTeam Stockton
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight EloTBD
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier56%
Rafael Rios 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 56% favorite over Rafael Rios in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1505 vs 1500), separated by just 5 points.
Nathan Trepagnier finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Rios 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.