Nathan Trepagnier vs Ray Hayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-6-0Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
67" Reach-
160 lbsWeight170 lbs
Academy of Martial ArtsTeamArsenal Elite
What's at stake
Ray Hayes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nathan Trepagnier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1527
If they lose-10→ 1495
If they win+10→ 1649
If they lose-22→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nathan TrepagnierRay Hayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ray Hayes69%
Nathan Trepagnier 31%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Ray Hayes a 69% favorite over Nathan Trepagnier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Ray Hayes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1505, a 134-point edge.
Ray Hayes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nathan Trepagnier finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Ray Hayes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.