Nathan Trepagnier vs Royler Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-6-0Record5-5-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
67" ReachTBD
160 lbsWeight150 lbs
Academy of Martial ArtsTeamGracie Humaita
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
If they win+16→ 1527
If they lose-16→ 1495
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1556 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nathan TrepagnierRoyler Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier60%
Royler Gracie 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 60% favorite over Royler Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Royler Gracie's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1505 vs 1511), separated by just 6 points.
Royler Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nathan Trepagnier finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Royler Gracie 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.