Nathan Trepagnier vs Tiequan Zhang
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-6-0Record15-4-0
WelterweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
67" ReachTBD
160 lbsWeight145 lbs
Academy of Martial ArtsTeamChina Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
If they win+24→ 1535
If they lose-24→ 1487
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nathan TrepagnierTiequan Zhang
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier66%
Tiequan Zhang 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 66% favorite over Tiequan Zhang in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tiequan Zhang's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1505 vs 1511), separated by just 6 points.
Tiequan Zhang enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nathan Trepagnier finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tiequan Zhang 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.