Combat Edge Intelligence

Nathan Trepagnier vs Tom Aaron

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-6-0Record5-3-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
67" ReachUnknown
160 lbsWeight155 lbs
Academy of Martial ArtsTeamFinney's MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
Tom AaronNow 1511
If they win+24→ 1535
If they lose-24→ 1487

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Nathan TrepagnierTom Aaron
15001550200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
2 (40%)
Submission
3 (60%)
2 (40%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier62%
Tom Aaron 38%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 62% favorite over Tom Aaron in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tom Aaron's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1505 vs 1511), separated by just 6 points.

Nathan Trepagnier finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aaron 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.