Combat Edge Intelligence

Neil Wain vs Shane Carwin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Neil Wain

Neil Wain

“Old Skool”

13-4-0HeavyweightM4TC

1597Solid

Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record12-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
242 lbsWeight254 lbs
TBDTeamGrudge Training Center

What's at stake

Shane Carwin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Neil Wain carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Neil WainNow 1597
If they win+19→ 1616
If they lose-13→ 1584
Shane CarwinNow 1672
If they win+13→ 1685
If they lose-19→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1474 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.64
Sig. strikes / min
4.38
50%
Strike accuracy
47%
8.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
43%
Strike defense
54%
0
Takedown avg.
1.42
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
50%
Takedown defense
43%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Neil WainShane Carwin
160016501700200920102011201220132014

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
8 (67%)
1 (8%)
Submission
4 (33%)
3 (23%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Shane Carwin70%
Neil Wain 30%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Shane Carwin a 70% favorite over Neil Wain in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Shane Carwin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1597, a 75-point edge.

Neil Wain finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Shane Carwin 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.