Nell Ariano vs Preston LaGrange
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Preston LaGrange63%
Nell Ariano 37%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Preston LaGrange a 63% favorite over Nell Ariano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Preston LaGrange holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1653 to 1606, a 47-point edge.
Preston LaGrange enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nell Ariano finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Preston LaGrange 100%.
Nell Ariano carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record7-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"Reach76"
206 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Preston LaGrange is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Nell Ariano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1633
If they lose-21→ 1585
If they win+21→ 1674
If they lose-27→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nell ArianoPreston LaGrange