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Combat Edge Intelligence

Nell Ariano vs Todd Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Todd Brown
us

Todd Brown

“Bulldog”

16-4-0MiddleweightMFL

1606Solid

Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record16-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'11"
79"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight185 lbs
Platinum MMA Training CentreTeamBulldog Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nell ArianoNow 1606
If they win+24→ 1630
If they lose-24→ 1582
Todd BrownNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
2.15
Not available
Strike accuracy
45%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
Not available
Strike defense
49%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0
Not available
Takedown accuracy
0%
Not available
Takedown defense
50%
Not available
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Nell ArianoTodd Brown
1550160016502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (67%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (38%)
2 (33%)
Decision
3 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Nell Ariano62%
Todd Brown 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nell Ariano a 62% favorite over Todd Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1606), separated by just 0 points.

Nell Ariano finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Todd Brown 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.