Nick Catone vs TJ Waldburger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record16-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nick Catone MMA & FitnessTeamGrapplers Lair Fight Team
What's at stake
Nick Catone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — TJ Waldburger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1634
If they lose-17→ 1602
If they win+17→ 1609
If they lose-15→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nick CatoneTJ Waldburger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Waldburger54%
Nick Catone 46%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Waldburger a 54% favorite over Nick Catone in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nick Catone's way (46%).
Nick Catone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1592, a 27-point edge.
TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nick Catone finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, TJ Waldburger 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.