Nick Catone vs Tom Watson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record17-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Nick Catone MMA & FitnessTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Tom Watson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nick Catone carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1636
If they lose-15→ 1604
If they win+11→ 1646
If they lose-13→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1576 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nick CatoneTom Watson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Watson52%
Nick Catone 48%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Watson a 52% favorite over Nick Catone in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Tom Watson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1619, a 16-point edge.
Tom Watson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nick Catone finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tom Watson 53%.
Nick Catone and Tom Watson share 1 common opponent: Chris Camozzi.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.