Combat Edge Intelligence

Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-10-0Record30-16-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
76"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nick Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Nick DiazNow 1759
If they win+13→ 1772
If they lose-11→ 1748
Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+11→ 1799
If they lose-13→ 1775

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1731 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.71
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
42%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.67
60%
Strike defense
59%
1.28
Takedown avg.
0.65
33%
Takedown accuracy
64%
60%
Takedown defense
65%
1
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Nick DiazRobbie Lawler
17501800202120222023

Win method breakdown

13 (50%)
KO/TKO
22 (73%)
8 (31%)
Submission
1 (3%)
5 (19%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Robbie Lawler54%
Nick Diaz 46%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 54% favorite over Nick Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1759, a 29-point edge.

Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Nick Diaz finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.

Nick Diaz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.