Nick Ertl vs Shaheen Santana
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-6-0Record8-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight148 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1553
If they lose-16→ 1521
If they win+16→ 1552
If they lose-16→ 1520
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nick ErtlShaheen Santana
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shaheen Santana64%
Nick Ertl 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shaheen Santana a 64% favorite over Nick Ertl in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nick Ertl's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1537 vs 1536), separated by just 1 points.
Nick Ertl enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shaheen Santana enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nick Ertl finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Shaheen Santana 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.