Nick Osipczak vs Rick Story
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record21-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
TBDReach40,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Rough HouseTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Nick Osipczak carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+34→ 1617
If they lose-14→ 1569
If they win+7→ 1751
If they lose-17→ 1727
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1541 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nick OsipczakRick Story
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rick Story75%
Nick Osipczak 25%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 75% favorite over Nick Osipczak in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1583, a 161-point edge.
Nick Osipczak finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.