Combat Edge Intelligence

Nick Osipczak vs Ryan Gerena

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record4-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Team Rough HouseTeamVamos BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nick OsipczakNow 1583
If they win+24→ 1607
If they lose-24→ 1559
Ryan GerenaNow 1584
If they win+24→ 1608
If they lose-24→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1541 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.83
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
51%
Strike defense
TBD
1.20
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
71%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.96
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Nick OsipczakRyan Gerena
15001550160020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
3 (75%)
4 (67%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan Gerena60%
Nick Osipczak 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gerena a 60% favorite over Nick Osipczak in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1583 vs 1584), separated by just 1 points.

Ryan Gerena enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Nick Osipczak finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Gerena 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.