Nicolaj Wagner vs Pat Barry
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record8-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
249 lbsWeight237 lbs
TeamTeam Death Clutch
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1554
If they lose-24→ 1506
If they win+16→ 1541
If they lose-16→ 1509
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nicolaj WagnerPat Barry
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Pat Barry59%
Nicolaj Wagner 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Pat Barry a 59% favorite over Nicolaj Wagner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nicolaj Wagner's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1530 vs 1525), separated by just 5 points.
Pat Barry enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Pat Barry 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.