Nicolaj Wagner vs Patrick Vespaziani
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record6-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'7"
-Reach79"
249 lbsWeight242 lbs
TeamMMA Spirit
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1556
If they lose-24→ 1508
If they win+16→ 1548
If they lose-16→ 1516
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nicolaj WagnerPatrick Vespaziani
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Patrick Vespaziani54%
Nicolaj Wagner 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Patrick Vespaziani a 54% favorite over Nicolaj Wagner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nicolaj Wagner's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1532), separated by just 0 points.
Patrick Vespaziani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Vespaziani 100%.
Nicolaj Wagner and Patrick Vespaziani share 2 common opponents: Olutobi Ayodeji Kalejaiye and Lazar Todev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossTKO (Punch to the Body) · 2026
WinTKO (Punches and Elbows) · 2025