Combat Edge Intelligence

Nicolaj Wagner vs Pawel Nastula

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-4-0Record5-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
249 lbsWeight233 lbs
TeamNastula Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+23→ 1555
If they lose-25→ 1507
Pawel NastulaNow 1524
If they win+16→ 1540
If they lose-16→ 1508

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1546 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Nicolaj WagnerPawel Nastula
150015502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (100%)
KO/TKO
3 (60%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (40%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner66%
Pawel Nastula 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 66% favorite over Pawel Nastula in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1524), separated by just 8 points.

Pawel Nastula enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Pawel Nastula 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.